Dynamics of Public Perception toward the Pramono Anung – Rano Karno Ticket in the 2024 Jakarta Gubernatorial Election
Keywords:
public perception, electability, political image, urban voters, electionAbstract
The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election (Pilkada DKI Jakarta) is widely recognized as a highly dynamic political contest and often serves as a barometer of national political trends in Indonesia. The characteristics of urban voters, who tend to be critical, responsive, and highly exposed to information cause shifts in public perception toward candidates to occur rapidly. This article analyzes the dynamics of public perception toward the Pramono Anung–Rano Karno ticket in the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election, based on survey data conducted by Charta Politika Indonesia in July, September, and November 2024. The July survey represents the baseline condition prior to the official declaration of the ticket, while the September and November surveys capture changes following the formation of the candidate pair in late August 2024. The analysis focuses on three key indicators: electability, reasons for voting, and the level of vote certainty. The findings reveal a significant increase in electability after the declaration, indicating growing public acceptance of the combination of Pramono’s technocratic image and Rano’s affective–populist appeal. The level of vote certainty also increased in the final survey, suggesting a consolidation of electoral support. These findings demonstrate that a complementary image strategy and effective political narratives can influence urban voter preferences within a relatively short period of time.
Downloads
References
Aspinall, E., & Mietzner, M. (2019). Indonesia’s Populist Local Elections: The Rise of Local Strongmen. Journal of Democracy, 30(4), 70–84. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2019.0060
Dalton, R. J. (2014). Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies.
Al-Zoabi, A. Y. (2004). The residents’ ‘images of the past’ in the architecture of Salt City, Jordan. Habitat International, 28(4), 541–565. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2003.10.007
Fowler, F. J. (2014). Survey Research Methods (5th ed.). SAGE Publications.
Groves, R. M., Fowler, F. J., Couper, M. P., Lepkowski, J. M., Singer, E., & Tourangeau, R. (2009). Survey Methodology. Wiley.
Hetherington, M. J. (1998). The Political Relevance of Political Trust. American Political Science Review, 92(4), 791–808. https://doi.org/10.2307/2586304
Holbrook, T. (2016). Urban voting and political behavior. Political Research Quarterly, 69(2), 327–339. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912916634890
Iyengar, S., & Simon, A. F. (2000). New Perspectives and Evidence on Political Communication and Campaign Effects. Annual Review of Psychology, 51, 149–169. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.psych.51.1.149
Kish, L. (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley & Sons.
Lavrakas, P. J. (2008). Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods. SAGE Publications.
McNair, B. (2017). An Introduction to Political Communication. Routledge.
Mietzner, M., & Muhtadi, B. (2018). Explaining the 2017 Jakarta Election: Identity Politics and Populism. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 37(2), 57–83. https://doi.org/10.1177/186810341803700203
Newman, B. I. (2015). The Marketing of Political Leaders: A Comparative Perspective. Routledge.
Norris, P. (2000). Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Governance. Oxford University Press.
Norris, P. (2011). Democratic Deficit: Critical Citizens Revisited. Cambridge University Press.
Street, J. (2004). Celebrity Politicians: Popular Culture and Political Representation. British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 6(4), 435–452. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856X.2004.00149.x
